Josh Allred's Blog

In Canada, you can find a skittish bird called the loon. The interesting thing about loons is that they will find a mate for life and they only want to be on a lake alone together. If another set of loons shows up, they will leave.

If you were to take a set of speakers and made loon calls with them, eventually the loons occupying the lake will leave in fear of their safety.

Of course, the loons are wrong. There is no real danger.

If you look at human behavior, we often make decisions based on our fears. We don’t see that the loon noises around the corner are fake. We fear the worst that something out there is trying to kill us.

For thousands of years, we had to rely on these instincts. A branch snapping could mean a bear was ready to pounce us. Most of us don’t have to worry about bears chasing us anymore. Yet, we let these fears continue to drive our decision-making every day.

Today, we have metaphorical bears that we continue to worry about–consumer debts, health insurance, mortgage payments. None of these things are deadly. None of them are trying to eat us. Sure, it is stressful. We live in a stressful world. It is stressful to think we are behind in our retirement. And it is stressful to feel that we can never pay off a mountain of debt. It is stressful to think how we are going to help our kids through college.

Except 200 years ago, a drought could mean we were going to starve. And hospitals were not to be found when we were sick or injured. Access to clean water was a chore. So was bathing and washing clothes. It was difficult to keep your house warm in the winter. You only owned one set of clothes and shoes. There was no such thing as the internet.

It is stressful to not have any choices and it is stressful to make choices. We have never had more choices to choose from in the entire history of the world. 

The world will never be completely save for any of us. None of us are going to make it out of here alive. Despite the loon noises, it is the safest it has ever been. We don’t need to carry the same weight our ancestors did. We don’t. It’s a choice.

A basketball assist is awarded to the player who passes the ball to a teammate in a way that leads to a score.

Quite often though, someone will make a play before the assist occurs like a quick outlet pass or a tipped ball or a screen that leads to a backdoor cut.

Initiating won’t always get the credit that is deserved. Regardless of what is reflected on the stat sheets a proper team recognizes the sacrifices of others that made them successful.

Skiers will tell you that the fastest one down the hill is the one that leans in the most.

Not leaning in so far that you fall face first, but leaning in enough to where it feels like you are going to face plant.

Our best work is when we operate in this space.

A bubble requires two things: An overvaluation of fundamentals and speculation.

Speculation will follow any appreciating asset. (A rule of thumb, if you believe something is the next big thing, the market also believes it is the next big thing.)

Speculation creates more speculation, until one day, it becomes clear that the bubble has burst.

The problem is that humans are not very good at seeing.

History is riddled with examples of popular delusions: Alchemy, crusades, duels, fortune-telling, haunted houses and, of course, economic bubbles. Charles Mackay pointed this out here, here and here over 150 years ago.

A year ago, I was introduced to Bitcoin. Since then it has grown over 2,000%. I saw it but not enough to act on it. Today, you might be saying: Its 2017 Bitcoin is different from what we have seen in the past. (It’s not.) Blockchain technology will revolutionize the financial system. (It will but not overnight.)

Cable news uses urgency to capitalize on our fears. Have you noticed that all news is breaking? Statistically storms are reported more inaccurately on cable news than with the National Weather Service. Why? Because the worse it seems the more we tune in.

Social media has trained us to check in incessantly. For many of us, it is the last thing we do before bed and the first thing we do when we wake up. I think it is because we want to make sure the world didn’t fall apart while we were asleep.

Video games and VR can be used as tools to elevate our performance. Too often they distract us from doing important work. They are used as an escape from our reality. (Here is a world you can control.)

Fear will never go away. It is how we are wired. The trick is learning to separate shadows–what is real risk and what is fake.

School has conditioned us to follow the rules, to sit still, to fit in with the crowd. It has trained us to work within the boundaries set by those with authority: Follow these simple set of instructions and be rewarded with an A (or get paid).

There is no need to raise our hands anymore. We don’t need to ask for permission to go do that thing you always wanted to do. All you have to do is stand up and speak out.

We have tools now (like the Internet) that give a microphone to the voiceless.

[That is worth fighting for and protecting.]

Human beings are irrational creatures. Many don’t second guess driving a car 80 miles per hour while on a cell phone everyday. Yet, our biggest fear remains public speaking. (Probably one of the safest activities we can actually do in a group setting.) It’s no coincidence though. It has been drilled into us since the beginning.

The Internet has given us so much. It connects us, it is a source for knowledge, it is a tool you can use to create and share whatever you want.

What would happen if that privilege was taken away? What would happen if your internet service provider controlled, blocked or slow down which sites you could access?

We’ve seen moves like this before with phones, radio, movies where a few giant corporations (looking at you AT&T and Time Warner) would have control over the means of communication and production.

Give the Internet five minutes back by calling your local Congressman, sign a petition, and share this message with others.

Join us by breaking the Internet for 48 hours while the FCC gets ready to vote.

#savenetneutrality #stopthefcc

Jeff Bezos’ net worth briefly surpassed the 100 billion mark. Not bad for someone who started out selling books from their garage.

The paradox is that Amazon has only turned a profit a handful of quarters in its 20 year history.

How?

Value is what we assign, what we agree upon.

Profit may no longer be essential. What is essential is building a tribe, getting enough people to believe in your idea.

Fixed costs, variable costs, capital costs, depreciation all factor into the price tag we pay at the checkout line.

But what about the…

Opportunity cost–the loss of a potential gain. If I spent $30,000 on a brand new car, what could have I earned by buying a $3,000 used car and investing the other $27,000 in index funds?

Environmental cost–the impact of our finite resources. Is it green and clean? What kind of strain are we putting on the world we live in by using this product?

Cultural cost–the influence this has on how we live. Does this product promote dignity, opportunity and respect? Does it help us build a culture that we can all be proud of?

Healthcare cost–the effect on our physical, mental and spiritual well-beings. We are the the most obese, the most medicated and the most drugged up adult population in human history.

The most important principle to understand is this:

Sunk cost–the price paid that can’t be recovered…

We like to think that “It” is something you are born with, an indescribable factor that only a special group of people have, an outlier.

Let’s be clear, “It” is a lousy way to describe the years of practice and emotional labor someone has dedicated to perfecting their craft.

We rather attribute someone’s fortune to good genes, overnight success and luck because it makes us feel better about ourselves, to let us off the hook. (Of course, it doesn’t.)

Perhaps someone was born in the right circumstances with the right genes with the natural ability to be extraordinary at their craft. I doubt it. More likely, we see someone who has failed over and over again and has found a way to persevere, we are looking at someone who has been through the trenches.

Give the respect that is deserved and recognize that you can be there too–if you dare enough.