Josh Allred's Blog

Day trading is a distraction.

Instead of doing important work–the kind of work that brings meaning to our lives and the change we seek to make in the world–we fill it with incessantly checking prices. We spend our time talking about walls, whales and predicting the unpredictable.

Instead of HODLing to something that we have no control over, let’s create, initiate, do the work we are most afraid of that is going to get your lambo on the moon.

Except, it wont be a lambo on the moon, it will be something better because it’s real.

Don’t be a leaf in the wind blowing whichever direction the wind takes you–this is another form of hiding.

Important decisions can’t be made trying to please everyone, just someone.

What if there is no such thing as a dumb person? Or someone who is lazy? Or entitled?

Labels first had to be imagined.

They are not real which means they can be changed.

We don’t have to fit everyone into the mental boxes we have set up.

There are two tactics:

The first is to alter, modify, replace how we see the world.

And the second is used as a form of hiding.

The former can be a tool to help us get unstuck, get out of our own way, make a situation better, help us combat Resistance. We can use it to help us push through the dip and to level up–to do something we have never done before.

The latter is a tactic we use to cement ourselves in the positions we take–our biases and prejudices. We change the subject when we can’t argue on fact or evidence. We ridicule and exclude others as a form of hiding. We don’t want the shame of being wrong. (People like us do things like this.) Worse, we don’t want to change our minds because that is not how we were brought up to see the world.

Narratives are all invented. If we picked up one that isn’t working, we can put it down and try another.

Schooling is good at dumbing down the masses, making us compliant cogs in a machine, teaching us to color in the lines and to consume. All the while, trapping a whole generation in insane debt.

Education, on the other hand, stems from curiosity and wonder. Real education is about leading and leaping, taking chances, testing, measuring, receiving feedback and changing our minds, learning how to see, creating tension, understanding that something might not work, shipping, adding value to others so that we can add value to ourselves….

You may be surprised to discover that students know less after four years of college. (The more elite the school, the worse it gets.) The bottom line is education doesn’t take place in the classroom. School is a lousy substitute for what life can teach us.

Life becomes childish when we let it fall into a routine.

Not the kind of childish behavior of wonder and amazement but of obedience, compliance and banal.

We have agency, we have a choice whether we accept it or not.

Ready as in this is my best work. I know it isn’t perfect but if I wait until it is then I will never ship it. So I share it with the people around me and I put my name on it because I am proud of it. I hope it changes the recipient as much as it has changed me. I recognize the change I seek to make doesn’t happen until after I generously give this away. I’m not sure how it will be received but I am going to send it out anyway, knowing that it won’t resonate with everyone just someone.

Ready as in I’m stepping into the void not knowing what is coming next. I’ll have to improvise along the way because there is no map, no step-by-step set of instructions on what to do next. This space is where I do my best work. I can hang in there with this tension longer than everyone else can because I care more. I care enough to see this through.

Ready as in I can’t do this alone. I know that my story, my movement needs to resonate with the people around me, my tribe. I will fail over and over again until it strikes a chord. I’m a scientist because I continue to test and measure, poke the box to see what is inside. I have tremendous faith at the end of my story because I am the one who is writing it.

Ready as in I am no longer making twenty-year plans but twenty-year commitments. Everyone wants to be on the shortest path but there are no short cuts. Me? I am taking the long cut. I recognize that people like us do stuff like this–they push through the dip. I invest in tomorrow today. I push aside what is popular to focus on what is important. I recognize Resistance. It is distracting and trying to subvert me from doing my best work.

Finally…

Ready as in this is something that I have never done before; I will never be completely ready.

Ready?

Go.

The problem with our biases and prejudices is that they are often wrong. We sweep everyone associated in the category into one giant box. And now that someone is labeled, we can point out the flaws to make ourselves feel better.

Regardless of what the digital algorithm spits out on our threads or what we read on the internet or what people tell us or what we think, most teenagers are not eating Tide Pods. The reason being, most teenagers know that Tide Pods are dangerous and contain poison.

39 cases of people eating Tide Pods were reported in 2016. 53 in 2017. So far, 39 cases in 2018. We are less than a month into the year. Yes, that is alarming but not an epidemic. Not enough to paint teenagers as Tide Pod droppers.

Something we have to understand about human behavior: When we see someone jay walking across the street, we now assume it is okay for us to jay walk across the street. Deep down we know it is wrong, but we justify our bad behaviors when we see someone else do it.

If we listen to popular cultural believes, we would have thought the 1960’s were the heyday of drug use. In reality, it was the 1970’s and 80’s that brought on the wave of unprecedented drug use.

The point is: We need more faith in our youth that when the time comes they are going to make decisions that are going to make our mothers proud. Mocking them widens the gap between us. Labels are made up. We can change them. And by doing so, we may open doors for the next generation to do things we never thought we could do.

While Crypto keeps shooting up and down like a roller coaster, rather quietly, the S&P 500 gains over the last year have been astounding. 22% and still going strong!

We might be in for a bear market in 2018. It’s not often we see a seven-year run like this. Yet, after WWII, we saw a 10 year run so you never know.

Here are some rules I use for those who don’t know where to start with their investing:

You have to invest. Drip by drip by drip. Here a little, there a little. You have to find ways to put money away. This is the biggest indicator that tells me how serious someone is about their future.

Understand there are a lot of ways to win. There is no one strategy to win with money. Some portfolios carry more risk, some people don’t have the risk tolerance, some have 30 years until retirement and others have less.

Don’t touch it. Don’t take a loan out on your 401K unless it is a true life or death emergency. I would down size on a house or take a second job before taking a loan out. If you ever leave your job, make sure to use a direct transfer to roll over your retirement. The penalties associated with cashing out early are horrendous.

Don’t invest in anything you don’t understand. Educating yourself on your investments brings more joy and excitement. Living in the dark creates fear. Fear keeps people from investing.

Invest early and often. We all have heard about the magic of compound interest. Einstein called it the Eighth Wonder of the World. Here is a chart that shows the difference if you can get in early.

Ignore the loon noises. If you didn’t invest because of political ideology in 2008, 2012 and 2016–you missed out on some important gains. There is a lot of noise out there on what the market is going to do. The truth is, no one knows. The data, however, shows that over time it does continue to go up. Best to ignore the noise out there, don’t let them scare you away.

Look for tax advantage plans. Understand what the differences are between a 401K (pay taxes on the back) and a Roth IRA (pay taxes up front) and figure out which is a better plan to go with.

Don’t pay for your Broker’s annual Disneyland trip. This is my biggest pet peeve of the industry. In my opinion, for the average investor Brokers offer little value for what you could already manage on your own. However, real advise is worth something–a onetime fee. Brokers do not have to earn an annual percentage of your nest egg over the next 50 years. The reality is Brokers cannot beat the market year after year. So look for a Fiduciary, someone who by law has to look out for your financial interest. They are hard to find but could be worth it if you are nervous about getting started.

Diversify. I’m a huge fan of Index Funds. These lightly managed funds offer low expense ratios and allow me to invest in thousands of different companies all over the world.

Total your net worth. The affluent focus on one number and that is their total net worth. That means adding up everything from your savings, home, retirement, vehicle…all your assets minus your liabilities. Keep track of this number.

Understand your level of risk tolerance. The longer you have until retirement, the more risk you should be able to take on.

Match everything. If your job offers a match with any investment you make, do it. This is no brainer. It is free money. Don’t leave it on the table.

Save 15% of your take home pay. And if you can’t do that save what you can when you can, even if that means eating black beans and rice for a while.

Consider having retirement savings withdrawn before you receive your paycheck. Take the temptations away. Learn to live on less than you make.

Your annual returns should at least average 9%. The stock market has averaged 9% over the last century. I’m always surprised to talk to friends and hear about their returns hanging around 2% year after year. In lean years, that could be fantastic but in the last decade we are having that hasn’t cut it. Remember, down the road 2% won’t even cover inflation.

Don’t eat the marshmallow. The last three years before you retire are likely where you will see your biggest returns. Be patient.

There are two things we need to understand about marathon runners:

1. No one signs up for a marathon not expecting to get tired.
2. Every marathon runner hits a wall. That moment when your body shuts down and you want nothing more than to quit.

The question then becomes, where are you going to put the tired?

No project is worth doing, no book is worth writing, no movement is worth starting that doesn’t have a moment where you ask yourself, “Is it worth it?”

That’s the moment–when you get to decide what kind of person you’re going to be: People like us do stuff like this or be like everyone else and quit.