A Weatherman is not the same as a Meteorologist.
A Meteorologist goes to school and studies the patterns of the Earth.
A Weatherman is an entertainer.
The goal of the Weatherman is not to be accurate but to boost ratings. As Nate Silver puts it, they “add ‘value’ by subtracting accuracy”.
Making noise, creating urgency may give you 15 minutes of fame. But this approach doesn’t scale. You can’t earn trust just by getting our attention. You need generosity and connection.
The problem is that *Weathermen don’t bother to make accurate forecasts because they figure no one will believe them. And people don’t believe them because they don’t make accurate forecasts.
The Meteorologist isn’t going to make noise like a Weatherman. No, he is behind the scenes. Analyzing and predicting so that people (including Weathermen) can do their jobs better.
Drip by drip by drip. Earning a little bit of trust with each interaction.
It’s extremely difficult for anyone to predict the future. Even a 5-day forecast (or a presidential election). No one has a crystal ball. But I much rather listen to someone who sees the world as it is, rather than someone who sees it as they want it to be.
[* It turns out there are lots of people who will ignore data, cherry pick the facts and manipulate the system to push a personal agenda. Finding accurate information about candidates is increasing difficult in a world full of noise. Look for someone in the accuracy business not in the urgent one.]