A birthday surprise is challenging to pull off. Mainly because the person knows it’s their birthday to begin with. There are expectations that surprises can come at any moment.
But when we are surprised by the results of an election, it’s most likely that we weren’t paying attention to the signs. This might say so much more about the content of your algorithm and the social media that you consume—that our expectations didn’t match what was happening.
Predicting the behavior of the masses will always be a surprise. So much depends on how we feel, what we truly believe, and what we want to signal. And we seek the outcomes that match who we think we are.