Ellsberg Paradox

The Ellsberg Paradox goes like this. You have a bucket of balls. There are 90 balls. 30 of them are red and the rest are either black or yellow.

So here is the choice you get to make:

Option 1) You get a $100 if you choose a red one or

Option 2) Receive $100 if you choose a black one.

Which one do you choose?

It turns out that if you do the math, the chances are identical. Yet, most people still go with Option 1 for the red balls. Because we prefer to take on the known risks rather the unknown. We say to ourselves, “With my luck, there are probably not any black balls in the bucket.

I can’t escape the lesson here: All alternatives lead to uncertainty. There are no paths that we can choose that will lead to a guarantee. We desperately want to the control the outcomes of our lives. So much so that we are willing to trade almost anything for an illusion of control.