The odds of guessing a perfect March Madness bracket is 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
And yet, 47 million Americans will bet 8.5 billion dollars during the NCAA Tournament.
The reason why so many of us are willing to play is that we say to ourselves, “What if I become the first person ever to fill out a perfect bracket?”
Before we decide which games to play we should take a moment to measure the probabilities of success.
So if you are choosing something that has never or rarely been done before (like winning the lottery), you’ve got to be extremely lucky.
The flip side is if everyone can do it, it probably not that valuable to begin with.
The good news is there is a large playing field in between. Somewhere between 99/100 and 1/9.2 quintillion, you can have the guts to pick something that is just difficult enough where most people will quit.
And then you have to stick with it long enough in order for the probabilities it to work in your favor.
[Note: The reason why some of choose projects that are so grand is because it’s a good excuse to hide. We say to ourselves and others, “It’s so big, how could I even start?”]